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Dainava vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Dainava
Dainava
FT
3 – 2
BFA
BFA
A. Marciukaitis 28'
M. Vasiliauskas 24' (pen)
V. Mena Cuesta 10'
A. Dolznikov 66'
P. Malinauskas 31' (pen)
8/21/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas (Alytus)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dainava60%
×Draw20%
BFA20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
2.14
BFA
1.15

Dainava creates 86% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 102 away

creates per match

Dainava
2.24
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Dainava
0.95
BFA
2.04

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
80%
Dainava or BFA
80%
Draw or BFA
40%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
37%
BFA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
88%
Dainava 2+ goals
63%
Dainava 3+ goals
36%
BFA 1+ goals
68%
BFA 2+ goals
32%
BFA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
75%
BFA (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.04 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 2.24 + BFA defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.14

BFA attack 1.34 + Dainava defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dainava scores more
60%
level
20%
BFA scores more
20%

Dainava at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
V. Mena Cuesta
24'
M. VasiliauskasPenalty
28'
A. Marciukaitis
31'
P. MalinauskasPenalty
66'
A. Dolznikov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Dainava 3–2 BFA

Dainava beat BFA 3-2 in 1 Lyga on August 21, 2019.

Goals: V. Mena Cuesta (10'), M. Vasiliauskas (24' pen), A. Marciukaitis (28'), P. Malinauskas (31' pen), A. Dolznikov (66').

The match was played at Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas (Alytus).