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BFA vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dainava
Dainava
4/4/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Sirvintu stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

BFA34%
×Draw25%
Dainava41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.40
Dainava
1.55

Dainava creates 11% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 48 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Dainava
1.60

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Dainava
1.13

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

BFA or draw
59%
BFA or Dainava
75%
Draw or Dainava
66%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
16%
Dainava wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
75%
BFA 2+ goals
41%
BFA 3+ goals
17%
Dainava 1+ goals
79%
Dainava 2+ goals
46%
Dainava 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
46%
Dainava (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Dainava attack 1.60 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BFA scores more
34%
level
25%
Dainava scores more
41%

Dainava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: BFA 0–0 Dainava

BFA and Dainava drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Sirvintu stadionas in Sirvintos.