Dainava 3–0 Atmosfera: Result & Stats | Cup

Dainava

FT

3 – 0

Atmosfera

6/30/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundAlytaus m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dainava5%

×Draw10%

Atmosfera85%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DainavaExpected goals in this matchAtmosfera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

3.18

Dainava

0.68

Atmosfera

3.18

Atmosfera creates 368% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

3.86

2.50

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Dainava

0.50

Atmosfera

3.86

allows per match

Dainava

2.50

Atmosfera

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par

Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

Atmosfera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–312%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Dainava or draw

15%

Dainava or Atmosfera

90%

Draw or Atmosfera

95%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+

1%

Atmosfera wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals

49%

Dainava 2+ goals

15%

Dainava 3+ goals

3%

Atmosfera 1+ goals

96%

Atmosfera 2+ goals

82%

Atmosfera 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)

6%

Atmosfera (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 3.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 0.50 + Atmosfera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Atmosfera attack 3.86 + Dainava defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Dainava scores more

5%

level

10%

Atmosfera scores more

85%

Atmosfera at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Atmosfera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff