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Daga United vs Tsirang — Premier League 2023

Daga United
Daga United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tsirang
Tsirang
7/16/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United29%
×Draw20%
Tsirang51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daga United
1.80
Tsirang
2.39

Tsirang creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Daga United
1.44
Tsirang
1.00

allows per match

Daga United
3.78
Tsirang
2.17

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par
Tsirang+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Tsirang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Daga United or draw
49%
Daga United or Tsirang
80%
Draw or Tsirang
71%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+
15%
Tsirang wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals
83%
Daga United 2+ goals
54%
Daga United 3+ goals
27%
Tsirang 1+ goals
91%
Tsirang 2+ goals
69%
Tsirang 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)
37%
Tsirang (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Tsirang away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Tsirang defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tsirang attack 1.00 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Daga United scores more
29%
level
20%
Tsirang scores more
51%

Tsirang at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tsirang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daga United vs Tsirang

Daga United beat Tsirang 2-1 in Premier League on July 16, 2024.

The match was played at Dagapela Artificial Turf in Dagapela.