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Daga United vs RTC — Premier League 2023

Daga United
Daga United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RTC
RTC
6/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United16%
×Draw16%
RTC67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daga United
1.44
RTC
2.96

RTC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 31 away

creates per match

Daga United
1.44
RTC
2.13

allows per match

Daga United
3.78
RTC
1.45

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par
RTC+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

RTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Daga United or draw
33%
Daga United or RTC
84%
Draw or RTC
84%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+
7%
RTC wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals
76%
Daga United 2+ goals
42%
Daga United 3+ goals
18%
RTC 1+ goals
95%
RTC 2+ goals
79%
RTC 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)
20%
RTC (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

RTC away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + RTC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

RTC attack 2.13 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Daga United scores more
16%
level
16%
RTC scores more
67%

RTC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "RTC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Daga United 1–2 RTC

RTC beat Daga United 2-1 in Premier League on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dagapela Artificial Turf in Dagapela.