Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Daga United vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Daga United
Daga United
FT
1 – 11
HT: 1 – 8
Paro
Paro
7/26/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United7%
×Draw10%
Paro83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daga United
1.09
Paro
3.83

Paro creates 251% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Daga United
1.44
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Daga United
3.78
Paro
0.75

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Daga United or draw
17%
Daga United or Paro
90%
Draw or Paro
93%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+
2%
Paro wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals
66%
Daga United 2+ goals
30%
Daga United 3+ goals
10%
Paro 1+ goals
98%
Paro 2+ goals
88%
Paro 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)
7%
Paro (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.09

Paro attack 3.88 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Daga United scores more
7%
level
10%
Paro scores more
83%

Paro at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daga United vs Paro

Paro beat Daga United 11-1 in Premier League on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Dagapela Artificial Turf in Dagapela.