Daejeon Seobu 0–6 Jeonju: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Daejeon Seobu

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Jeonju

3/5/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundGyeryong Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Daejeon Seobu1%

×Draw4%

Jeonju94%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon SeobuExpected goals in this matchJeonju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

4.33

Daejeon Seobu

0.50

Jeonju

4.33

Jeonju creates 766% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

2.67

6.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Daejeon Seobu

0.33

Jeonju

2.67

allows per match

Daejeon Seobu

6.00

Jeonju

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Seobu+0.00on par

Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Seobu ↓

Jeonju →

0–01%

0–14%

0–29%

0–313%

0–414%

1–00%

1–12%

1–24%

1–36%

1–47%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–32%

2–42%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Daejeon Seobu or draw

Daejeon Seobu or Jeonju

96%

Draw or Jeonju

99%

Winning margin

Daejeon Seobu wins by 2+

Jeonju wins by 2+

84%

Team goals

Daejeon Seobu 1+ goals

39%

Daejeon Seobu 2+ goals

Daejeon Seobu 3+ goals

Jeonju 1+ goals

98%

Jeonju 2+ goals

92%

Jeonju 3+ goals

77%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Seobu (draw refunded)

Jeonju (draw refunded)

98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Seobu at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Jeonju away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Seobu attack 0.33 + Jeonju defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Jeonju attack 2.67 + Daejeon Seobu defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 94%?"

Daejeon Seobu scores more

level

Jeonju scores more

94%

Jeonju at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Jeonju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff