Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Daejeon Korail vs Yangju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
7/1/2022K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 19Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Daejeon Korail54%
×Draw26%
Yangju Citizen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Korail
1.50
Yangju Citizen
0.79

Daejeon Korail creates 90% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 54 away

creates per match

Daejeon Korail
1.31
Yangju Citizen
0.67

allows per match

Daejeon Korail
0.90
Yangju Citizen
1.70

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par
Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Yangju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw
80%
Daejeon Korail or Yangju Citizen
74%
Draw or Yangju Citizen
46%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
28%
Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
78%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
44%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
19%
Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
55%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
19%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
73%
Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 106 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.31 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more
54%
level
26%
Yangju Citizen scores more
20%

Daejeon Korail at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Daejeon Korail 2–0 Yangju Citizen

Daejeon Korail beat Yangju Citizen 2-0 in K3 League on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium in Daejeon.