Daejeon Korail 1–0 Seoul United: Result & Stats

Daejeon Korail

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Seoul United

Unknown 70'

3/4/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundDaejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Daejeon Korail48%

×Draw26%

Seoul United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon KorailExpected goals in this matchSeoul United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Daejeon Korail

1.52

Seoul United

1.06

Daejeon Korail creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

1.54

creates per match

1.50

0.62

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Daejeon Korail

1.54

Seoul United

1.50

allows per match

Daejeon Korail

0.62

Seoul United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par

Seoul United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Seoul United →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw

74%

Daejeon Korail or Seoul United

74%

Draw or Seoul United

52%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+

24%

Seoul United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals

78%

Daejeon Korail 2+ goals

45%

Daejeon Korail 3+ goals

20%

Seoul United 1+ goals

65%

Seoul United 2+ goals

29%

Seoul United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)

64%

Seoul United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Seoul United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.54 + Seoul United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Seoul United attack 1.50 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more

48%

level

26%

Seoul United scores more

26%

Daejeon Korail at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff