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Daejeon Korail vs Seoul E-Land FC — FA Cup 2019

Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seoul E-Land FC
Seoul E-Land FC
Ha Jae-Hyeon 120+4' (pen)
Kim Byung-Oh 120+3' (pen), 70'
K. Son 120+1' (pen)
Byeon Gyung-Jun 120+5' (pen)
Cho Dong-Jae 120+4' (pen)
Kim Gyeol 120+3' (pen), 82'
Kim Min-Kyu 120+2' (pen)
Lee Sang-Min 120+1' (pen)
3/23/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundDaejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daejeon Korail55%
×Draw28%
Seoul E-Land FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Korail
1.37
Seoul E-Land FC
0.61

Daejeon Korail creates 125% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Daejeon Korail
1.54
Seoul E-Land FC
0.60

allows per match

Daejeon Korail
0.62
Seoul E-Land FC
1.20

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par
Seoul E-Land FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Seoul E-Land FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw
83%
Daejeon Korail or Seoul E-Land FC
72%
Draw or Seoul E-Land FC
45%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
27%
Seoul E-Land FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
75%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
40%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
16%
Seoul E-Land FC 1+ goals
46%
Seoul E-Land FC 2+ goals
13%
Seoul E-Land FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
77%
Seoul E-Land FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Seoul E-Land FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.54 + Seoul E-Land FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.60 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more
55%
level
28%
Seoul E-Land FC scores more
17%

Daejeon Korail at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Kim Byung-Oh
82'
Kim Gyeol
120+1'
Lee Sang-MinPenalty
120+1'
K. SonPenalty
120+2'
Kim Min-KyuPenalty
120+2'
Y. KimMissed penalty
120+3'
Kim GyeolPenalty
120+3'
Kim Byung-OhPenalty
120+4'
Cho Dong-JaePenalty
120+4'
Ha Jae-HyeonPenalty
120+5'
Byeon Gyung-JunPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daejeon Korail vs Seoul E-Land FC

Daejeon Korail and Seoul E-Land FC drew 1-1 in FA Cup on March 23, 2024.

Goals: Kim Byung-Oh (70', 120+3' pen), Kim Gyeol (82', 120+3' pen), Lee Sang-Min (120+1' pen), K. Son (120+1' pen), Kim Min-Kyu (120+2' pen), Cho Dong-Jae (120+4' pen), Ha Jae-Hyeon (120+4' pen), Byeon Gyung-Jun (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium in Daejeon.