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Daejeon Korail vs Namyangju — FA Cup 2019

Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Namyangju
Namyangju
Park Ye-Chan 83'
C. Park 74'
J. Seong 56'
4/16/2025FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundDaejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Daejeon Korail48%
×Draw23%
Namyangju28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Korail
1.77
Namyangju
1.31

Daejeon Korail creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Daejeon Korail
1.54
Namyangju
2.00

allows per match

Daejeon Korail
0.62
Namyangju
2.00

finishing

Daejeon Korail+0.00on par
Namyangju+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Korail ↓

Namyangju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Daejeon Korail or draw
72%
Daejeon Korail or Namyangju
77%
Draw or Namyangju
52%

Winning margin

Daejeon Korail wins by 2+
26%
Namyangju wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Daejeon Korail 1+ goals
83%
Daejeon Korail 2+ goals
53%
Daejeon Korail 3+ goals
26%
Namyangju 1+ goals
73%
Namyangju 2+ goals
38%
Namyangju 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Korail (draw refunded)
63%
Namyangju (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Korail at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Namyangju away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Korail attack 1.54 + Namyangju defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Namyangju attack 2.00 + Daejeon Korail defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Daejeon Korail scores more
48%
level
23%
Namyangju scores more
28%

Daejeon Korail at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Daejeon Korail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
J. Seong
74'
C. Park
83'
Park Ye-Chan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daejeon Korail vs Namyangju

Daejeon Korail beat Namyangju 3-0 in FA Cup on April 16, 2025.

Goals: J. Seong (56'), C. Park (74'), Park Ye-Chan (83').

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Secondary Stadium in Daejeon.