Daejeon Citizen 1–1 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Daejeon Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gwangju FC

Kim In-Gyun 62'

Reis 34'

3/29/2025

K League 1 · Round 6Daejeon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Daejeon Citizen44%

×Draw27%

Gwangju FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daejeon CitizenExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.05

Daejeon Citizen

1.35

Gwangju FC

1.05

Daejeon Citizen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 96 away

1.22

creates per match

0.98

1.12

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Daejeon Citizen

1.22

Gwangju FC

0.98

allows per match

Daejeon Citizen

1.12

Gwangju FC

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Citizen ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Daejeon Citizen or draw

71%

Daejeon Citizen or Gwangju FC

73%

Draw or Gwangju FC

56%

Winning margin

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

20%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

74%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

39%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

15%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

65%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

28%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

60%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Citizen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.49 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.22 + Gwangju FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Daejeon Citizen scores more

44%

level

27%

Gwangju FC scores more

29%

Daejeon Citizen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Kim In-Gyun

Daejeon Citizen · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

19'

34'

42'

45+1'

Kim In-Gyun← Kim Hyeon-Ug

45+1'

Joo Min-Kyu← Choi Geon-Joo

46'

J. Asani← Kim Han-Gil

46'

Oh Hoo-Sung← Moon Min-seo

55'

Jin-ho Kim

62'

Kim In-Gyun↳ Kang Yun-Sung

63'

Park In-Hyeok← Choi Kyoung-Rok

69'

Jeong Jae-Hee← M. Ishida

69'

V. Gutkovskis← D. Yoon

69'

H. S. Kang← Ju Se-Jong

79'

Jun-beom Kim

79'

Byeon Jun-Soo← Bruno Oliveira

81'

Lee Jun-Gyu← Kim Jun-Beom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DaejeonGwangju

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots9

6Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots9

4On Target2

2Off Target2

2Blocked5

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

527Total Passes358

436Accurate Passes281

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2