Daegu FC vs Seongnam FC — K League 2 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Daegu FC49%
Seongnam FC27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Daegu FC creates 43% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Daegu FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Daegu FC at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches
Seongnam FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Daegu FC attack 2.11 + Seongnam FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.69
Seongnam FC attack 1.03 + Daegu FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Daegu FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Seongnam FC substitutes
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Daegu FC host Seongnam FC on Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 10:30. The match is part of the K League 2 2026/2027 season.
Daegu FC 3 – 2 Seongnam FC
Daegu FC beat Seongnam FC 3-2 in K League 2 on July 11, 2026.
Goals: Venicio (18'), Kim Ju-Gong (25' pen), Lee Jeong-Bin (49'), Ryu Jae-Moon (57'), G. Reis (90').
The match was played at DGB Daegu Bank Park in Daegu.