Daegu FC 4–0 Melbourne Victory: Result & Stats

Daegu FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Melbourne Victory

5/8/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC76%

×Draw14%

Melbourne Victory10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu FCExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.90

Daegu FC

2.80

Melbourne Victory

0.90

Daegu FC creates 211% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.78

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Daegu FC

2.78

Melbourne Victory

0.91

allows per match

Daegu FC

0.89

Melbourne Victory

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw

90%

Daegu FC or Melbourne Victory

86%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

24%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+

55%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals

94%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

76%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

52%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

59%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

23%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

89%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Melbourne Victory defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.80

Melbourne Victory attack 0.91 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Daegu FC scores more

76%

level

14%

Melbourne Victory scores more

10%

Daegu FC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff