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Daegu FC vs Chiangrai United — AFC Champions League 2018

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
CANC
10:00
Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
6/23/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Play-offsStadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daegu FC73%
×Draw17%
Chiangrai United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
2.39
Chiangrai United
0.78

Daegu FC creates 206% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
2.78
Chiangrai United
0.67

allows per match

Daegu FC
0.89
Chiangrai United
2.00

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Chiangrai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
90%
Daegu FC or Chiangrai United
83%
Draw or Chiangrai United
27%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
50%
Chiangrai United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
91%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
69%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
42%
Chiangrai United 1+ goals
54%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
18%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
87%
Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 2.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 2.78 + Chiangrai United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.39

Chiangrai United attack 0.67 + Daegu FC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Daegu FC scores more
73%
level
17%
Chiangrai United scores more
10%

Daegu FC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Daegu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Daegu FC host Chiangrai United

June 23, 2021: Daegu FC take on Chiangrai United in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Daegu FC host Chiangrai United at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.