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Daegu Cheongsol vs Yeoju Sejong — FA Cup 2019

Daegu Cheongsol
Daegu Cheongsol
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Yeoju Sejong
Yeoju Sejong
3/10/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundRiverside Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Daegu Cheongsol6%
×Draw10%
Yeoju Sejong84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu Cheongsol
0.86
Yeoju Sejong
3.44

Yeoju Sejong creates 300% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Daegu Cheongsol
0.33
Yeoju Sejong
2.20

allows per match

Daegu Cheongsol
4.67
Yeoju Sejong
1.40

finishing

Daegu Cheongsol+0.00on par
Yeoju Sejong+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu Cheongsol ↓

Yeoju Sejong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Daegu Cheongsol or draw
16%
Daegu Cheongsol or Yeoju Sejong
90%
Draw or Yeoju Sejong
94%

Winning margin

Daegu Cheongsol wins by 2+
2%
Yeoju Sejong wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Daegu Cheongsol 1+ goals
58%
Daegu Cheongsol 2+ goals
21%
Daegu Cheongsol 3+ goals
6%
Yeoju Sejong 1+ goals
97%
Yeoju Sejong 2+ goals
85%
Yeoju Sejong 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Daegu Cheongsol (draw refunded)
7%
Yeoju Sejong (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu Cheongsol at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Yeoju Sejong away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu Cheongsol attack 0.33 + Yeoju Sejong defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Yeoju Sejong attack 2.20 + Daegu Cheongsol defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Daegu Cheongsol scores more
6%
level
10%
Yeoju Sejong scores more
84%

Yeoju Sejong at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Yeoju Sejong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Daegu Cheongsol 0–4 Yeoju Sejong

Yeoju Sejong beat Daegu Cheongsol 4-0 in FA Cup on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Riverside Soccer Field in Daegu.