Daegu Cheongsol 0–5 Pocheon: Result & Stats

Daegu Cheongsol

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Pocheon

3/8/2025

FA Cup · 1st RoundRiverside Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Daegu Cheongsol6%

×Draw11%

Pocheon83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Daegu CheongsolExpected goals in this matchPocheon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

3.33

Daegu Cheongsol

0.83

Pocheon

3.33

Pocheon creates 301% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

2.00

4.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Daegu Cheongsol

0.33

Pocheon

2.00

allows per match

Daegu Cheongsol

4.67

Pocheon

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Daegu Cheongsol+0.00on par

Pocheon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu Cheongsol ↓

Pocheon →

0–02%

0–15%

0–29%

0–310%

0–48%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Daegu Cheongsol or draw

17%

Daegu Cheongsol or Pocheon

89%

Draw or Pocheon

94%

Winning margin

Daegu Cheongsol wins by 2+

Pocheon wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Daegu Cheongsol 1+ goals

56%

Daegu Cheongsol 2+ goals

20%

Daegu Cheongsol 3+ goals

Pocheon 1+ goals

96%

Pocheon 2+ goals

84%

Pocheon 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Daegu Cheongsol (draw refunded)

Pocheon (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Daegu Cheongsol at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Pocheon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Daegu Cheongsol attack 0.33 + Pocheon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Pocheon attack 2.00 + Daegu Cheongsol defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Daegu Cheongsol scores more

level

11%

Pocheon scores more

83%

Pocheon at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Pocheon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff