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Dadjè vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Dadjè
Dadjè
FT
1 – 0
JAK
JAK
4/16/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 12Stade de Pobè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dadjè49%
×Draw28%
JAK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dadjè
1.37
JAK
0.84

Dadjè creates 63% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dadjè
1.37
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Dadjè
0.96
JAK
1.37

finishing

Dadjè+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dadjè ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dadjè or draw
77%
Dadjè or JAK
72%
Draw or JAK
51%

Winning margin

Dadjè wins by 2+
24%
JAK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dadjè 1+ goals
75%
Dadjè 2+ goals
40%
Dadjè 3+ goals
16%
JAK 1+ goals
57%
JAK 2+ goals
21%
JAK 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dadjè (draw refunded)
68%
JAK (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dadjè at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 108 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dadjè attack 1.37 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

JAK attack 0.73 + Dadjè defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dadjè scores more
49%
level
28%
JAK scores more
23%

Dadjè at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dadjè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dadjè vs JAK

Dadjè beat JAK 1-0 in Championnat National on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Pobè in Pobè.