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Dadjè vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

Dadjè
Dadjè
FT
1 – 3
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
1/5/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 15Stade Aplahoué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Dadjè44%
×Draw29%
Béké Bembèrèkè27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dadjè
1.27
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.93

Dadjè creates 37% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 92 away

creates per match

Dadjè
1.37
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.90

allows per match

Dadjè
0.96
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.16

finishing

Dadjè+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dadjè ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dadjè or draw
73%
Dadjè or Béké Bembèrèkè
71%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
56%

Winning margin

Dadjè wins by 2+
20%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dadjè 1+ goals
72%
Dadjè 2+ goals
36%
Dadjè 3+ goals
14%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
61%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
24%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dadjè (draw refunded)
62%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dadjè at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 108 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dadjè attack 1.37 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.90 + Dadjè defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dadjè scores more
44%
level
29%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
27%

Dadjè at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dadjè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dadjè 1–3 Béké Bembèrèkè

Béké Bembèrèkè beat Dadjè 3-1 in Championnat National on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Aplahoué in Aplahoué.