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Dadjè vs AS Cotonou — Championnat National 2019

Dadjè
Dadjè
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
2/24/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 4Stade Aplahoué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Dadjè41%
×Draw30%
AS Cotonou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dadjè
1.16
AS Cotonou
0.92

Dadjè creates 26% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 113 away

creates per match

Dadjè
1.37
AS Cotonou
0.88

allows per match

Dadjè
0.96
AS Cotonou
0.95

finishing

Dadjè+0.00on par
AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dadjè ↓

AS Cotonou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dadjè or draw
71%
Dadjè or AS Cotonou
70%
Draw or AS Cotonou
59%

Winning margin

Dadjè wins by 2+
18%
AS Cotonou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dadjè 1+ goals
69%
Dadjè 2+ goals
32%
Dadjè 3+ goals
11%
AS Cotonou 1+ goals
60%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
23%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dadjè (draw refunded)
59%
AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dadjè at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 108 matches

AS Cotonou away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.95 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dadjè attack 1.37 + AS Cotonou defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

AS Cotonou attack 0.88 + Dadjè defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dadjè scores more
41%
level
30%
AS Cotonou scores more
29%

Dadjè at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dadjè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dadjè vs AS Cotonou

Dadjè beat AS Cotonou 1-0 in Championnat National on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Aplahoué in Aplahoué.