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Dadjè vs Adjidja — Championnat National 2019

Dadjè
Dadjè
FT
2 – 1
Adjidja
Adjidja
4/9/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 9Stade Aplahoué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Dadjè47%
×Draw29%
Adjidja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dadjè
1.25
Adjidja
0.80

Dadjè creates 56% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 75 away

creates per match

Dadjè
1.37
Adjidja
0.64

allows per match

Dadjè
0.96
Adjidja
1.13

finishing

Dadjè+0.00on par
Adjidja+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dadjè ↓

Adjidja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dadjè or draw
76%
Dadjè or Adjidja
71%
Draw or Adjidja
53%

Winning margin

Dadjè wins by 2+
21%
Adjidja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dadjè 1+ goals
71%
Dadjè 2+ goals
36%
Dadjè 3+ goals
13%
Adjidja 1+ goals
55%
Adjidja 2+ goals
19%
Adjidja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dadjè (draw refunded)
66%
Adjidja (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dadjè at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 108 matches

Adjidja away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dadjè attack 1.37 + Adjidja defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Adjidja attack 0.64 + Dadjè defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dadjè scores more
47%
level
29%
Adjidja scores more
24%

Dadjè at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dadjè will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dadjè 2–1 Adjidja

Dadjè beat Adjidja 2-1 in Championnat National on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Aplahoué in Aplahoué.