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Dacia vs Speranţa Nisporeni — Super Liga 2026

Dacia
Dacia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Speranţa Nisporeni
Speranţa Nisporeni
7/30/2017Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Stadionul Moldova (Speia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dacia53%
×Draw24%
Speranţa Nisporeni23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia
1.73
Speranţa Nisporeni
1.06

Dacia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dacia
1.60
Speranţa Nisporeni
1.11

allows per match

Dacia
1.00
Speranţa Nisporeni
1.86

finishing

Dacia+0.00on par
Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia ↓

Speranţa Nisporeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dacia or draw
77%
Dacia or Speranţa Nisporeni
76%
Draw or Speranţa Nisporeni
47%

Winning margin

Dacia wins by 2+
29%
Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dacia 1+ goals
82%
Dacia 2+ goals
52%
Dacia 3+ goals
25%
Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals
65%
Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals
29%
Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dacia (draw refunded)
70%
Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Speranţa Nisporeni away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia attack 1.60 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 1.11 + Dacia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dacia scores more
53%
level
24%
Speranţa Nisporeni scores more
23%

Dacia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dacia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Dacia 2–1 Speranţa Nisporeni

Dacia beat Speranţa Nisporeni 2-1 in Super Liga on July 30, 2017.

The match was played at Stadionul Moldova (Speia).