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Dacia Unirea Braila vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
9/15/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila38%
×Draw23%
Pandurii TG JIU38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.61
Pandurii TG JIU
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
62%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Pandurii TG JIU
77%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
62%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
19%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
80%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
48%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
22%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
80%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
47%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
50%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
38%
level
23%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
38%

Dacia Unirea Braila at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dacia Unirea Braila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 0–4 Pandurii TG JIU

Pandurii TG JIU beat Dacia Unirea Braila 4-0 in Liga II on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).