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Dacia Unirea Braila vs FC Clinceni — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
3/2/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 23Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila15%
×Draw21%
FC Clinceni64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.84
FC Clinceni
2.00

FC Clinceni creates 138% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
FC Clinceni
1.74

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
FC Clinceni
0.79

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
36%
Dacia Unirea Braila or FC Clinceni
79%
Draw or FC Clinceni
85%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
5%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
57%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
21%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
5%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
86%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
59%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
19%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
15%
level
21%
FC Clinceni scores more
64%

FC Clinceni at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 0–2 FC Clinceni

FC Clinceni beat Dacia Unirea Braila 2-0 in Liga II on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).