Dacia Unirea Braila 0–2 Farul Constanta

Dacia Unirea Braila

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Farul Constanta

5/25/2019

Liga II · Round 37Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila27%

×Draw25%

Farul Constanta48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dacia Unirea BrailaExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.61

Dacia Unirea Braila

1.16

Farul Constanta

1.61

Farul Constanta creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 45 away

0.89

creates per match

0.96

2.26

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.89

Farul Constanta

0.96

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila

2.26

Farul Constanta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw

52%

Dacia Unirea Braila or Farul Constanta

75%

Draw or Farul Constanta

73%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

11%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

69%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

32%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

11%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

80%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

48%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

37%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

27%

level

25%

Farul Constanta scores more

48%

Farul Constanta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff