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Dacia Unirea Braila vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
11/28/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila39%
×Draw24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.57
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
62%
Dacia Unirea Braila or CS Luceafarul Oradea
76%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
61%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
19%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
79%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
46%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
21%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
79%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
46%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
51%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.57

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
39%
level
24%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
38%

Dacia Unirea Braila at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dacia Unirea Braila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 1–1 CS Luceafarul Oradea

Dacia Unirea Braila and CS Luceafarul Oradea drew 1-1 in Liga II on November 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).