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Dacia-Buiucani vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Floreşti
Floreşti
9/21/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani61%
×Draw20%
Floreşti19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
2.12
Floreşti
1.08

Dacia-Buiucani creates 96% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.42
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.36
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
81%
Dacia-Buiucani or Floreşti
80%
Draw or Floreşti
39%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
38%
Floreşti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
88%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
62%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
35%
Floreşti 1+ goals
66%
Floreşti 2+ goals
29%
Floreşti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
77%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.42 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.12

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
61%
level
20%
Floreşti scores more
19%

Dacia-Buiucani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dacia-Buiucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dacia-Buiucani vs Floreşti

Dacia-Buiucani beat Floreşti 2-0 in Super Liga on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru 2 in Chişinău.