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Dachau vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Dachau
Dachau
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
8/18/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 7Sportanlage Jahnstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dachau36%
×Draw24%
Schwaben Augsburg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dachau
1.50
Schwaben Augsburg
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dachau
1.68
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Dachau
1.56
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Dachau+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dachau ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dachau or draw
60%
Dachau or Schwaben Augsburg
76%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
64%

Winning margin

Dachau wins by 2+
17%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dachau 1+ goals
78%
Dachau 2+ goals
44%
Dachau 3+ goals
19%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
80%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
47%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dachau (draw refunded)
47%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dachau at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dachau attack 1.68 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Dachau defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dachau scores more
36%
level
24%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
40%

Schwaben Augsburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dachau vs Schwaben Augsburg

Schwaben Augsburg beat Dachau 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Jahnstraße in Dachau.