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Dachau vs Kirchheimer SC — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Dachau
Dachau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
11/18/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 21Sportanlage Jahnstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dachau58%
×Draw21%
Kirchheimer SC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dachau
2.02
Kirchheimer SC
1.14

Dachau creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dachau
1.68
Kirchheimer SC
0.71

allows per match

Dachau
1.56
Kirchheimer SC
2.35

finishing

Dachau+0.00on par
Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dachau ↓

Kirchheimer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dachau or draw
79%
Dachau or Kirchheimer SC
79%
Draw or Kirchheimer SC
42%

Winning margin

Dachau wins by 2+
34%
Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dachau 1+ goals
87%
Dachau 2+ goals
60%
Dachau 3+ goals
33%
Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
68%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
32%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dachau (draw refunded)
73%
Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dachau at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dachau attack 1.68 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Dachau defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dachau scores more
58%
level
21%
Kirchheimer SC scores more
21%

Dachau at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dachau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dachau vs Kirchheimer SC

Dachau beat Kirchheimer SC 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Jahnstraße in Dachau.