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Dachau vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Dachau
Dachau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
3/11/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 23Kunstrasenplatz TSV 1865 Dachau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dachau35%
×Draw24%
Ingolstadt II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dachau
1.48
Ingolstadt II
1.64

Ingolstadt II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dachau
1.68
Ingolstadt II
1.71

allows per match

Dachau
1.56
Ingolstadt II
1.29

finishing

Dachau+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dachau ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dachau or draw
58%
Dachau or Ingolstadt II
76%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
65%

Winning margin

Dachau wins by 2+
16%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dachau 1+ goals
77%
Dachau 2+ goals
43%
Dachau 3+ goals
19%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
81%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
49%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dachau (draw refunded)
46%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dachau at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dachau attack 1.68 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ingolstadt II attack 1.71 + Dachau defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dachau scores more
35%
level
24%
Ingolstadt II scores more
42%

Ingolstadt II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dachau vs Ingolstadt II

Ingolstadt II beat Dachau 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz TSV 1865 Dachau in Dachau.