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Dachau vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Dachau
Dachau
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Garching
Garching
11/12/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Sportanlage Jahnstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dachau51%
×Draw22%
Garching27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dachau
1.94
Garching
1.37

Dachau creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dachau
1.68
Garching
1.18

allows per match

Dachau
1.56
Garching
2.21

finishing

Dachau+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dachau ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dachau or draw
73%
Dachau or Garching
78%
Draw or Garching
49%

Winning margin

Dachau wins by 2+
29%
Garching wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dachau 1+ goals
86%
Dachau 2+ goals
58%
Dachau 3+ goals
30%
Garching 1+ goals
75%
Garching 2+ goals
40%
Garching 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dachau (draw refunded)
65%
Garching (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dachau at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dachau attack 1.68 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Garching attack 1.18 + Dachau defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dachau scores more
51%
level
22%
Garching scores more
27%

Dachau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dachau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dachau vs Garching

Dachau beat Garching 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Jahnstraße in Dachau.