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Da Nang vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
6/23/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 21Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Da Nang48%
×Draw30%
Pho Hien22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.21
Pho Hien
0.72

Da Nang creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 52 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.80
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Da Nang
0.30
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
78%
Da Nang or Pho Hien
70%
Draw or Pho Hien
52%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
21%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
70%
Da Nang 2+ goals
34%
Da Nang 3+ goals
12%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
51%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
16%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
68%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.80 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Da Nang defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Da Nang scores more
48%
level
30%
Pho Hien scores more
22%

Da Nang at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Da Nang 0 – 0 Pho Hien

Da Nang and Pho Hien drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.