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Da Nang vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Long An
Long An
5/11/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 16Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Da Nang64%
×Draw24%
Long An13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.67
Long An
0.59

Da Nang creates 183% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 62 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.80
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Da Nang
0.30
Long An
1.53

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
87%
Da Nang or Long An
76%
Draw or Long An
36%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
36%
Long An wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
81%
Da Nang 2+ goals
50%
Da Nang 3+ goals
23%
Long An 1+ goals
45%
Long An 2+ goals
12%
Long An 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
83%
Long An (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.80 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Long An attack 0.89 + Da Nang defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Da Nang scores more
64%
level
24%
Long An scores more
13%

Da Nang at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Da Nang vs Long An

Da Nang beat Long An 3-0 in V.League 2 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.