D. Puerto Montt 1–0 Provincial Ovalle

D. Puerto Montt

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Provincial Ovalle

3/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Puerto Montt56%

×Draw25%

Provincial Ovalle19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. Puerto MonttExpected goals in this matchProvincial Ovalle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.81

D. Puerto Montt

1.61

Provincial Ovalle

0.81

D. Puerto Montt creates 99% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

1.96

creates per match

0.90

0.72

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt

1.96

Provincial Ovalle

0.90

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt

0.72

Provincial Ovalle

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Provincial Ovalle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw

81%

D. Puerto Montt or Provincial Ovalle

75%

Draw or Provincial Ovalle

44%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+

30%

Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals

80%

D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals

48%

D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals

22%

Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals

56%

Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals

19%

Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)

75%

Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Provincial Ovalle away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.96 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

Provincial Ovalle attack 0.90 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more

56%

level

25%

Provincial Ovalle scores more

19%

D. Puerto Montt at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff