Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. Puerto Montt vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
9/15/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Puerto Montt57%
×Draw24%
Lautaro de Buin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Puerto Montt
1.74
Lautaro de Buin
0.91

D. Puerto Montt creates 91% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 58 away

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt
1.96
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt
0.72
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw
80%
D. Puerto Montt or Lautaro de Buin
76%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
43%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
32%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
82%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
52%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
25%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
60%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
23%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
74%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.96 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more
57%
level
24%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
20%

D. Puerto Montt at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Puerto Montt 2–1 Lautaro de Buin

D. Puerto Montt beat Lautaro de Buin 2-1 in Segunda División on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue in Puerto Montt.