D. Puerto Montt 0–0 Deportes Iquique

D. Puerto Montt

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Iquique

3/8/2022

Primera B · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Puerto Montt46%

×Draw27%

Deportes Iquique27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. Puerto MonttExpected goals in this matchDeportes Iquique

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

D. Puerto Montt

1.41

Deportes Iquique

1.02

D. Puerto Montt creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 55 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

0.92

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt

1.26

Deportes Iquique

1.11

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt

0.92

Deportes Iquique

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Deportes Iquique+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Deportes Iquique →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw

73%

D. Puerto Montt or Deportes Iquique

73%

Draw or Deportes Iquique

54%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+

22%

Deportes Iquique wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals

76%

D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals

41%

D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals

17%

Deportes Iquique 1+ goals

64%

Deportes Iquique 2+ goals

27%

Deportes Iquique 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Iquique (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.92 · 85 matches

Deportes Iquique away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.26 + Deportes Iquique defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportes Iquique attack 1.11 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more

46%

level

27%

Deportes Iquique scores more

27%

D. Puerto Montt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Villegas Jara

19'

S. Varas← M. Orellana

43'

G. Villegas Jara

43'

G. Villegas Jara

44'

C. González← J. Moya

46'

J. Méndez← G. Gallardo

63'

D. Imperiale← I. González

80'

L. Meza

80'

S. Varas

81'

C. Ojeda← I. Lemmo

86'

B. Guajardo Barrera

90+1'

B. N. Rivera

90+4'

B. Valdivia← F. Nuñez

D.

Deportes

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Durán

19'▲S. Varas←▼M. Orellana

46'▲J. Méndez←▼G. Gallardo

81'▲C. Ojeda←▼I. Lemmo

90+4'▲B. Valdivia←▼F. Nuñez

D. Puerto Montt substitutes

VarasMéndezOjedaValdiviaRetamalCalistoRosales

Manager: V. Rivero

44'▲C. González←▼J. Moya

63'▲D. Imperiale←▼I. González

Deportes Iquique substitutes

GonzálezImperialeGuerreroHidalgoCastilloContrerasRiveros