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D. Puerto Montt vs D. Melipilla — Primera B 2018

D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
10/12/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 26Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue (Puerto Montt)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

D. Puerto Montt44%
×Draw28%
D. Melipilla28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Puerto Montt
1.33
D. Melipilla
0.99

D. Puerto Montt creates 34% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 52 away

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt
1.25
D. Melipilla
1.04

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt
0.95
D. Melipilla
1.42

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw
72%
D. Puerto Montt or D. Melipilla
72%
Draw or D. Melipilla
56%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
21%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
74%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
38%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
15%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
63%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
26%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
61%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 95 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.25 + D. Melipilla defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

D. Melipilla attack 1.04 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more
44%
level
28%
D. Melipilla scores more
28%

D. Puerto Montt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

D. Puerto Montt 1 – 3 D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat D. Puerto Montt 3-1 in Primera B on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue (Puerto Montt).