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D. Melipilla vs D. Puerto Montt — Segunda División 2020

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
4/20/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Melipilla43%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.37
D. Puerto Montt
1.10

D. Melipilla creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 25 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.74
D. Puerto Montt
1.44

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.76
D. Puerto Montt
1.00

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
70%
D. Melipilla or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
57%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
20%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
75%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
40%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
16%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
67%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
30%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
59%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.44 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
43%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
30%

D. Melipilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Melipilla 0–1 D. Puerto Montt

D. Puerto Montt beat D. Melipilla 1-0 in Segunda División on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.