D. Melipilla 2–0 U. Catolica: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U. Catolica

5/3/2021

Primera División · Round 6Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. Melipilla35%

×Draw26%

U. Catolica39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.41

D. Melipilla

1.31

U. Catolica

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 129 away

1.44

creates per match

1.50

1.31

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.44

U. Catolica

1.50

allows per match

D. Melipilla

1.31

U. Catolica

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

61%

D. Melipilla or U. Catolica

74%

Draw or U. Catolica

65%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

15%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

73%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

38%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

14%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

76%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

41%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

47%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.44 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + D. Melipilla defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

35%

level

26%

U. Catolica scores more

39%

U. Catolica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff