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D. Melipilla vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
10/17/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 32Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Melipilla45%
×Draw28%
Santiago Morning27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.32
Santiago Morning
0.97

D. Melipilla creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 113 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Santiago Morning
1.06

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Santiago Morning
1.40

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Santiago Morning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
73%
D. Melipilla or Santiago Morning
72%
Draw or Santiago Morning
55%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
21%
Santiago Morning wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
73%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
38%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
15%
Santiago Morning 1+ goals
62%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
25%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
62%
Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
45%
level
28%
Santiago Morning scores more
27%

D. Melipilla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: D. Melipilla 2–1 Santiago Morning

D. Melipilla beat Santiago Morning 2-1 in Primera B on October 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.