D. Melipilla 0–0 Real San Joaquín: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real San Joaquín

8/24/2024

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

D. Melipilla59%

×Draw23%

Real San Joaquín18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchReal San Joaquín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.85

D. Melipilla

1.76

Real San Joaquín

0.85

D. Melipilla creates 107% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

1.74

creates per match

0.95

0.76

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.74

Real San Joaquín

0.95

allows per match

D. Melipilla

0.76

Real San Joaquín

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Real San Joaquín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

82%

D. Melipilla or Real San Joaquín

77%

Draw or Real San Joaquín

41%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

33%

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

83%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

52%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

26%

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

57%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

21%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

77%

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

59%

level

23%

Real San Joaquín scores more

18%

D. Melipilla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Real San Joaquín

D. Melipilla and Real San Joaquín drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.

D. Melipilla vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Real San Joaquín