Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

D. Melipilla vs Provincial Ovalle — Segunda División 2020

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle
5/11/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

D. Melipilla53%
×Draw26%
Provincial Ovalle21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.50
Provincial Ovalle
0.83

D. Melipilla creates 81% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.74
Provincial Ovalle
0.90

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.76
Provincial Ovalle
1.26

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Provincial Ovalle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
79%
D. Melipilla or Provincial Ovalle
74%
Draw or Provincial Ovalle
47%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
27%
Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
78%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
44%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
19%
Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals
56%
Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals
20%
Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
72%
Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Provincial Ovalle away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Provincial Ovalle attack 0.90 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
53%
level
26%
Provincial Ovalle scores more
21%

D. Melipilla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Melipilla 1–1 Provincial Ovalle

D. Melipilla and Provincial Ovalle drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.