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D. Melipilla vs Magallanes — Primera B 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Magallanes
Magallanes
11/17/2020Primera BPrimera B · Round 20Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

D. Melipilla41%
×Draw29%
Magallanes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.23
Magallanes
1.00

D. Melipilla creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 105 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.25
Magallanes
1.13

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.87
Magallanes
1.21

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
70%
D. Melipilla or Magallanes
71%
Draw or Magallanes
59%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
18%
Magallanes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
71%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
35%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
13%
Magallanes 1+ goals
63%
Magallanes 2+ goals
26%
Magallanes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
58%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Magallanes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Magallanes attack 1.13 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
41%
level
29%
Magallanes scores more
30%

D. Melipilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Magallanes

D. Melipilla and Magallanes drew 0-0 in Primera B on November 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.