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D. Melipilla vs Linares Unido — Segunda División 2020

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Unido
Linares Unido
7/28/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

D. Melipilla51%
×Draw26%
Linares Unido23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.50
Linares Unido
0.92

D. Melipilla creates 63% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.74
Linares Unido
1.07

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.76
Linares Unido
1.27

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Linares Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
77%
D. Melipilla or Linares Unido
74%
Draw or Linares Unido
49%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
26%
Linares Unido wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
78%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
44%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
19%
Linares Unido 1+ goals
60%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
23%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
69%
Linares Unido (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
51%
level
26%
Linares Unido scores more
23%

D. Melipilla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Linares Unido

D. Melipilla and Linares Unido drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.