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D. Melipilla vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
8/17/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

D. Melipilla51%
×Draw26%
General Velásquez23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.52
General Velásquez
0.91

D. Melipilla creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 77 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.74
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.76
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
77%
D. Melipilla or General Velásquez
74%
Draw or General Velásquez
49%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
26%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
78%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
45%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
20%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
60%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
23%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
69%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
51%
level
26%
General Velásquez scores more
23%

D. Melipilla at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: D. Melipilla 2–1 General Velásquez

D. Melipilla beat General Velásquez 2-1 in Segunda División on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.