D. Melipilla 2–0 Deportes Valdivia: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Valdivia

9/8/2019

Primera B · Round 22Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

D. Melipilla53%

×Draw24%

Deportes Valdivia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Valdivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.97

D. Melipilla

1.66

Deportes Valdivia

0.97

D. Melipilla creates 71% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

1.25

creates per match

1.06

0.87

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.25

Deportes Valdivia

1.06

allows per match

D. Melipilla

0.87

Deportes Valdivia

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Deportes Valdivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

78%

D. Melipilla or Deportes Valdivia

76%

Draw or Deportes Valdivia

47%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

29%

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

81%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

49%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

23%

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals

62%

Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals

25%

Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

71%

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.87 · 55 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.25 + Deportes Valdivia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.06 + D. Melipilla defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

53%

level

24%

Deportes Valdivia scores more

22%

D. Melipilla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff