D. Melipilla 2–0 Deportes Rengo: Result & Stats

D. Melipilla

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportes Rengo

9/14/2024

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

D. Melipilla56%

×Draw24%

Deportes Rengo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. MelipillaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Rengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.88

D. Melipilla

1.68

Deportes Rengo

0.88

D. Melipilla creates 91% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

D. Melipilla

1.74

Deportes Rengo

1.00

allows per match

D. Melipilla

0.76

Deportes Rengo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Deportes Rengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Deportes Rengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw

80%

D. Melipilla or Deportes Rengo

76%

Draw or Deportes Rengo

44%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

31%

Deportes Rengo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

81%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

50%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

24%

Deportes Rengo 1+ goals

59%

Deportes Rengo 2+ goals

22%

Deportes Rengo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

74%

Deportes Rengo (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Deportes Rengo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + Deportes Rengo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Deportes Rengo attack 1.00 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

D. Melipilla scores more

56%

level

24%

Deportes Rengo scores more

20%

D. Melipilla at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff