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D. La Serena vs Deportes Temuco — Primera B 2026

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Temuco
Deportes Temuco
10/19/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 30Estadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

D. La Serena48%
×Draw27%
Deportes Temuco25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.38
Deportes Temuco
0.90

D. La Serena creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 120 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.42
Deportes Temuco
1.07

allows per match

D. La Serena
0.73
Deportes Temuco
1.33

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
Deportes Temuco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Deportes Temuco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
75%
D. La Serena or Deportes Temuco
73%
Draw or Deportes Temuco
52%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
23%
Deportes Temuco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
75%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
40%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
16%
Deportes Temuco 1+ goals
59%
Deportes Temuco 2+ goals
23%
Deportes Temuco 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
66%
Deportes Temuco (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Deportes Temuco away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.42 + Deportes Temuco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportes Temuco attack 1.07 + D. La Serena defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

D. La Serena scores more
48%
level
27%
Deportes Temuco scores more
25%

D. La Serena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: D. La Serena 4–2 Deportes Temuco

D. La Serena beat Deportes Temuco 4-2 in Primera B on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.