Czechia 1–2 Türkiye: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Türkiye

T. Souček 66'

C. Tosun 90+4'

H. Çalhanoğlu 51'

6/26/2024

Euro Championship · Group F - 3Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Czechia30%

×Draw25%

Türkiye45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchTürkiye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.57

Czechia

1.23

Türkiye

1.57

Türkiye creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

1.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Czechia

1.25

Türkiye

1.40

allows per match

Czechia

1.75

Türkiye

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Türkiye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Türkiye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

55%

Czechia or Türkiye

75%

Draw or Türkiye

70%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

12%

Türkiye wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

71%

Czechia 2+ goals

35%

Czechia 3+ goals

13%

Türkiye 1+ goals

79%

Türkiye 2+ goals

46%

Türkiye 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

40%

Türkiye (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Türkiye away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.25 + Türkiye defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Türkiye attack 1.40 + Czechia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Czechia scores more

30%

level

25%

Türkiye scores more

45%

Türkiye at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Türkiye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. Souček

Czechia · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

-5'

-5'

-5'

-5'

11'

20'

20'

31'

37'

46'

49'

51'

H. Çalhanoğlu↳ İ. Yüksek

55'

M. Kovář← J. Staněk

55'

J. Kuchta← M. Chytil

55'

T. Chorý← A. Hložek

63'

O. Yokuşlu← İ. Yüksek

64'

66'

66'

75'

75'

76'

K. Aktürkoğlu← K. Yıldız

81'

Mert Müldür

81'

M. Jurásek← D. Jurásek

85'

Samet Akaydın

87'

O. Kökçü← H. Çalhanoğlu

90+8'

90+5'

90+5'

90+8'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaTürkiye

Overview

32%Possession68%

12Total Shots18

1.62Expected Goals (xG)1.46

3Corners7

16Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots18

7On Target5

3Off Target6

2Blocked7

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

229Total Passes512

160Accurate Passes447

70%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.67Goals Prevented0.67

Discipline

16Fouls9

7Yellow Cards11

2Red Cards0

0Offsides1