Czechia 2–1 Switzerland: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Switzerland

D. Sow 58' (OG)

J. Kuchta 11'

N. Okafor 44'

6/2/2022

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Fortuna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Czechia52%

×Draw23%

Switzerland24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchSwitzerland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.15

Czechia

1.80

Switzerland

1.15

Czechia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Czechia

1.60

Switzerland

0.90

allows per match

Czechia

1.40

Switzerland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Switzerland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

76%

Czechia or Switzerland

77%

Draw or Switzerland

48%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

29%

Switzerland wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

83%

Czechia 2+ goals

54%

Czechia 3+ goals

27%

Switzerland 1+ goals

68%

Switzerland 2+ goals

32%

Switzerland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

68%

Switzerland (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Switzerland away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.60 + Switzerland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Switzerland attack 0.90 + Czechia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Czechia scores more

52%

level

23%

Switzerland scores more

24%

Czechia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Kuchta

Czechia · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

20'

31'

35'

44'

58'

D. SowOwn goal

67'

O. Lingr← J. Jankto

68'

J. Pešek← J. Kuchta

68'

S. Zuber← D. Sow

68'

X. Shaqiri← N. Oka

80'

Ladislav Krejčí II

84'

L. Kalvach← M. Sadílek

87'

A. Matějů← J. Zelený

87'

V. Jurečka← A. Hložek

87'

J. Lotomba← R. Rodríguez

87'

H. Seferović← R. Vargas

90+2'

M. Gavranović← B. Embolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaSwitzerland

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots15

3Corners8

9Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target7

5Off Target6

0Blocked2

6Inside Box13

2Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

335Total Passes551

232Accurate Passes456

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2